This Week in Auto Racing August 13 - 15

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/11/2010 - Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NASCAR Sprint Cup and Nationwide Series head to the Irish Hills of Michigan, while the Camping World Truck Series returns to Darlington after a six-year hiatus at the track too tough to tame.

NASCAR

Sprint Cup Series

CARFAX 400 - Michigan International Speedway - Brooklyn, MI

With four races remaining before the Chase begins, tension is building among several drivers who hope to secure a spot in the playoffs. Just 205 points separate 12th-place Mark Martin from 19th-place Juan Pablo Montoya, who won his second career Sprint Cup race last weekend at Watkins Glen International.

Montoya made the Chase for the first time last year, finishing eighth in points. He is a long-shot in making the playoffs for the second year in a row, but anything can happen between this weekend's race at Michigan and next month's regular-season finale at Richmond.

"I think it's been for a while realistic that to make it you need a miracle," Montoya said. "Win one week, lose another. I made a lot of mistakes this year. I hurt the team a lot from that point."

Montoya snapped a 113-race winless streak in NASCAR's top-tier series at Watkins Glen. His first win came in June 2007 at the road course in Sonoma, CA. Montoya's win at Watkins Glen allowed him to gain two position in the standings.

"I think last year we didn't have the pace we have this year, and we made the Chase pretty easy, I thought," Montoya added. "This year, we had two cars capable, easily making the Chase, and both cars are out. That's what it is, I guess."

The closest battle in the "Race to the Chase" right now is between Martin and 13th-place Clint Bowyer.

After finishing 32nd at Watkins Glen, Bowyer dropped out of the top-12, as he trails Martin by a slim 10 points. Martin moved up one spot in the standings after his 19th-place run.

"This team is improving every week, and we just have to keep that going in Michigan," Martin said. "It's a good feeling to be back in there (top-12), but it's not at all a relief. We have four races to go. Anything can happen."

Martin won at Michigan in June 2009.

Bowyer's Richard Childress Racing teammates Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton are first and third in points, respectively. Harvick could become the first driver to clinch a spot in the Chase this year, as he currently is 569 points ahead of Martin.

Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne and Montoya are those drivers who made last year's Chase, but presently sit outside of the top-12. Newman is 83 points behind Martin in the 14th spot.

"It's still a great race for that 12th spot," Newman said. "I think it's easy to see that with all the shifting in the points each week. While we would much rather be inside the top-12 already, we've put ourselves in a good position to make the Chase, thanks to a lot of hard work by everyone at Stewart-Haas Racing."

Jamie McMurray, winner of the Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400 this year, is 94 points in back of the 12th position. McMurray jumped from 17th to 15th after an impressive sixth-place run at Watkins Glen.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. sat in 11th place after last month's race at Daytona, but has fallen to 16th with finishes of 23rd of worse in the last four races. Earnhardt Jr.'s last win in the series came in June 2008 at Michigan (79 races ago).

Could Sunday be the day Earnhardt Jr. finally snaps his winless streak?

"[Crew chief] Lance [McGrew] and the guys unloaded a great car last time at Michigan," said Earnhardt Jr., who finished seventh at Michigan two months ago. "We've had some good runs with this car. I enjoy going to Michigan because it's so wide. It has a lot of different grooves, and we can move around and find places to run on the track. We like coming here because it's in the backyard of the manufacturers. Hopefully, we'll get a win for Chevrolet."

Kasey Kahne heads to Michigan 133 points behind Martin, while David Reutimann trails by 166 markers.

Earlier this week, Red Bull Racing announced that Kahne will drive one of their Sprint Cup cars next year. Kahne will then move over to Hendrick Motorsports in 2012 to drive Martin's No.5 car.

Up until the 2009 season, Roush Fenway Racing had been dominant at Michigan, winning a Cup race there for seven consecutive years. Team owner Jack Roush, who resides 60 miles away from the two-mile track in Northville, MI, recorded his 11th victory there with driver Carl Edwards in August 2008. Roush moved into a tie with the Wood Brothers for most car owner wins at the track.

Roush remains at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN after suffering facial injuries during a plane crash two weeks ago in Oshkosh, WI. His condition was upgraded to fair last week, but his release date from the hospital remains undetermined.

Last week at Pocono, Greg Biffle gave Roush and manufacturer Ford its first Cup victory of the 2010 season. Biffle presently occupies the 11th position, but holds a comfortable 112-point advantage over Martin.

"We know we are in the fight of our life to get in the Chase right now," Biffle said. "We have Michigan, Atlanta and Bristol all coming up, and those are some great racetracks for us that are right down our alley."

Biffle won back-to-back races at Michigan from August 2004 to June 2005.

Forty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for the CARFAX 400.

Nationwide Series

CARFAX 250 - Michigan International Speedway - Brooklyn, MI

Nationwide Series teams will run the new car for the second time this weekend at Michigan. The car made its debut last month at Daytona, with Dale Earnhardt Jr. taking the victory in the No.3 Wrangler Chevrolet, a car number and paint scheme made famous by his late-father, Dale Earnhardt. Richmond (September 12) and Charlotte (October 15) are the other tracks scheduled for this car before it's introduced full-time in 2011.

At Daytona, Ford showcased its popular Mustang, while Dodge introduced the Challenger, Chevrolet brought a new model of its Impala, and Toyota kept its standard version of the Camry.

NASCAR is allowing teams to test the car on the two-mile Michigan track in a full-day of practice on Thursday. Teams will practice again the following day for Saturday afternoon's 250-mile race.

Brad Keselowski, the current points leader, returns to his home track with hopes of defending his race title here and giving the new Challenger its first win.

"I think a lot of folks in this series that are competing with this new car are very lost," Keselowski said. "Even at Penske Racing with the resources that we have, it's kind of a free-for-all. So you've got to start somewhere. Fortunately, I have a good place to start with our success at Daytona having two strong cars that qualified on the front row. Hopefully, some of that will carry over."

Keselowski enters Michigan with a very comfortable 327-point lead over Carl Edwards, who the Nationwide race at Michigan in 2008.

After a month hiatus in the series, Danica Patrick returns at Michigan. Patrick last competed in the July 9 race at Chicagoland, where she finished a season-best 24th. The IndyCar star has run in five Nationwide races so far this year. After Michigan, she is scheduled to race at Dover, California, Charlotte, St. Louis, Texas, Phoenix and Homestead.

"I'm thankful for the extended practice sessions NASCAR has given us in Michigan on Thursday," Patrick said. "It's going to be nice to get out there and run these new cars. We've been talking about the new cars so much this year, and now I'll get a chance to shake one down. JR Motorsports has put a lot of effort into its new car program, so I'm hoping we can get the most out of it in Michigan."

Forty-four teams are on the preliminary entry list for the CARFAX 250.

Camping World Truck Series

Too Tough to Tame 200 - Darlington Raceway - Darlington, SC

The Camping World Truck Series returns to Darlington Raceway for the first time in six years this weekend. The series previously ran four races at Darlington from 2001-04, producing three different winners. Bobby Hamilton won here twice, while Ted Musgrave and Kasey Kahne have one victory each. No previous truck winner at Darlington is entered in Saturday night's 200-mile race.

Matt Crafton, Dennis Setzer, Ken Schrader, David Starr, Todd Bodine, Mike Skinner and Jason White are those entered drivers who have competed in a previous truck race at Darlington. Crafton and Setzer have ran in all four here.

Schrader, a long-time NASCAR veteran, has the most experience at Darlington. In NASCAR's top-three series, Schrader has combined for more than 14,000 laps completed around the 1.366-mile "egg-shaped" oval.

"Darlington is a track where I have a lot of Cup Series starts, so I'm pretty familiar with its characteristics and challenges," Schrader said. "Some people call that 'character,' while others call it 'frustrating,' but make no mistake about it, Darlington is unique. There will never be another track like it, because I believe they broke the mold, and a lot of drivers breathed a sigh of relief."

For the second race in a row, Schrader will drive the No.2 Chevrolet for Kevin Harvick Inc.

Bodine, the current points leader, also has plenty experience at Darlington. His only truck start here came in 2004, as he finished 20th. Bodine has competed in numerous Sprint Cup and Nationwide races at Darlington.

"There's never a corner, a straightaway, not a single moment when you are under green that you can forget about the race track," Bodine said. "You race it every lap, and you are racing the 35 trucks around you. It takes a lot of patience, and at the same time, you've really got to get after it."

Darlington's track surface has received a facelift since the series last raced here. In 2008, new pavement was part of a $10 million renovation to the famed South Carolina track.

"It's still Darlington; It's just easier on tires," Bodine added.

Last weekend, Bodine picked up his second win of the season at Nashville. He also widened his points lead to 174 over Aric Almirola.

Thirty-three teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Too Tough to Tame 200.

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American Idol odds : Blake Lewis the Early Standout

An important American Idol betting lines recap from February 20 Guys episode. The 12 men came out flat overall with Blake Lewis appearing to have the early edge after the first hour and a half.

Rudy - was quite good singing "Free Ride" to start off.  Randy was not impressed though.  Paula thought he started off fantastic.  "Never had anyone stop off so lively" said Paula but Simon (who does not like Rudy) does not feel he has a distinct voice and was not impressed either. 

Brandon was a little pitchy according to Randy and Paula agreed.  Simon said he was a good singer but the song was "too safe" and he needs to make an impact.  He was listed at +1200 odds or $1200 paid out on a $100 bet should he win the competition. 

Big favorite Sundance came in with a flat version of "Knights in White Satin" and the judges let him have it, including Paula.  Randy claimed the song was out of pitch throughout.

Korean American - and a Jenny Woo favorite - Paul Kim was up next.  Another pitchy flat one but Randy said he still liked his potential.  Kim at +3000 odds was said to have sung a "third rate version of that (George Michael) song" according to Simon Cowell.  He sang "Careless Whisper".

22 year old Chris Richardson was up next.  He was listed with +1100 odds coming in.  He got the best response from the judges though Simon did not believe the vocal was that great. 

Nick was boring and pitchy.  Simon didn't think he was that bad though and predicted he would be back next week.  Nick Pedro was a big +3000 dog coming into this competition. 

Beat boxer Blake Lewis was listed with early +1000 odds or $1000 payout on a $100 bet if he were to become the next American Idol winner odds .  These of course were the early odds.  He was considered original for picking an "odd song".  He did not beat box and the judges felt it was the best vocal of the night. 

Sanjaya came in as the second biggest favorite after Chris Sligh but his performance Tuesday night was not very good. 

Chris Sleigh was the early favorite at +450 odds.  Great voice and a great sense of humor.  He's a real standout.  Randy felt it was on point but maybe ahead of the chorus a little bit.  Simon Cowell said he felt like he was in some "sort of weird student gig". 

Jared Cotter followed.  He was listed with +2000 odds early on to win the competition.  The judges felt he needs to take more risks but looked good. 

22-year old AJ Talbado, who has tried out for American Idol five times, was up next.  "Kind of a theme park performance" said Simon.  Though the judges felt he performed okay.  Simon did feel AJ might be better than he originally thought.

Phil - this season's military favorite - came into this competition with +1200 odds to win the competition.  He was the last to perform.  He was certainly strong enough to get through this stage of the competition and perhaps the best one after a shaky start. 

Tomorrow night, the ladies perform and I sure hope they do a better job than the boys.  Check out all the American Idol betting odds here.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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