Race for the Chase battle heats up in Michigan

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/11/2010 - Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, August 15. Race: CARFAX 400. Site: Michigan International Speedway. Track: two-mile oval. Start time: 1:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 200. Miles: 400. 2009 winner: Brian Vickers. Television: ESPN. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.

With four races remaining before the Chase begins, tension is building among several drivers who hope to secure a spot in the playoffs. Just 205 points separate 12th-place Mark Martin from 19th-place Juan Pablo Montoya, who won his second career Sprint Cup race last weekend at Watkins Glen International.

Montoya made the Chase for the first time last year, finishing eighth in points. He is a long-shot in making the playoffs for the second year in a row, but anything can happen between this weekend's race at Michigan and next month's regular-season finale at Richmond.

"I think it's been for a while realistic that to make it you need a miracle," Montoya said. "Win one week, lose another. I made a lot of mistakes this year. I hurt the team a lot from that point."

Montoya snapped a 113-race winless streak in NASCAR's top-tier series at Watkins Glen. His first win came in June 2007 at the road course in Sonoma, CA. Montoya's win at Watkins Glen allowed him to gain two position in the standings.

"I think last year we didn't have the pace we have this year, and we made the Chase pretty easy, I thought," Montoya added. "This year, we had two cars capable, easily making the Chase, and both cars are out. That's what it is, I guess."

The closest battle in the "Race to the Chase" right now is between Martin and 13th-place Clint Bowyer.

After finishing 32nd at Watkins Glen, Bowyer dropped out of the top-12, as he trails Martin by a slim 10 points. Martin moved up one spot in the standings after his 19th-place run.

"This team is improving every week, and we just have to keep that going in Michigan," Martin said. "It's a good feeling to be back in there (top-12), but it's not at all a relief. We have four races to go. Anything can happen."

Martin won at Michigan in June 2009.

Bowyer's Richard Childress Racing teammates Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton are first and third in points, respectively. Harvick could become the first driver to clinch a spot in the Chase this year, as he currently is 569 points ahead of Martin.

Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne and Montoya are those drivers who made last year's Chase, but presently sit outside of the top-12. Newman is 83 points behind Martin in the 14th spot.

"It's still a great race for that 12th spot," Newman said. "I think it's easy to see that with all the shifting in the points each week. While we would much rather be inside the top-12 already, we've put ourselves in a good position to make the Chase, thanks to a lot of hard work by everyone at Stewart-Haas Racing."

Jamie McMurray, winner of the Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400 this year, is 94 points in back of the 12th position. McMurray jumped from 17th to 15th after an impressive sixth-place run at Watkins Glen.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. sat in 11th place after last month's race at Daytona, but has fallen to 16th with finishes of 23rd of worse in the last four races. Earnhardt Jr.'s last win in the series came in June 2008 at Michigan (79 races ago).

Could Sunday be the day Earnhardt Jr. finally snaps his winless streak?

"[Crew chief] Lance [McGrew] and the guys unloaded a great car last time at Michigan," said Earnhardt Jr., who finished seventh at Michigan two months ago. "We've had some good runs with this car. I enjoy going to Michigan because it's so wide. It has a lot of different grooves, and we can move around and find places to run on the track. We like coming here because it's in the backyard of the manufacturers. Hopefully, we'll get a win for Chevrolet."

Kasey Kahne heads to Michigan 133 points behind Martin, while David Reutimann trails by 166 markers.

Earlier this week, Red Bull Racing announced that Kahne will drive one of their Sprint Cup cars next year. Kahne will then move over to Hendrick Motorsports in 2012 to drive Martin's No.5 car.

Up until the 2009 season, Roush Fenway Racing had been dominant at Michigan, winning a Cup race there for seven consecutive years. Team owner Jack Roush, who resides 60 miles away from the two-mile track in Northville, MI, recorded his 11th victory there with driver Carl Edwards in August 2008. Roush moved into a tie with the Wood Brothers for most car owner wins at the track.

Roush remains at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN after suffering facial injuries during a plane crash two weeks ago in Oshkosh, WI. His condition was upgraded to fair last week, but his release date from the hospital remains undetermined.

Last week at Pocono, Greg Biffle gave Roush and manufacturer Ford its first Cup victory of the 2010 season. Biffle presently occupies the 11th position, but holds a comfortable 112-point advantage over Martin.

"We know we are in the fight of our life to get in the Chase right now," Biffle said. "We have Michigan, Atlanta and Bristol all coming up, and those are some great racetracks for us that are right down our alley."

Biffle won back-to-back races at Michigan from August 2004 to June 2005.

Forty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for the CARFAX 400.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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